Georgia Tech +10 3.3% play
There are a few shops out there with 10âs including Bovada. Iâm even happy taking Tech at +9.5 at -105.
I was extremely impressed by Georgia Techâs win last week against Vanderbilt. I thought there was value with them at -6.5 over Vanderbilt especially since they havenât faced the triple option before, but I could not pull the trigger. They win in convincing fashion and the offense looked great against Derek Masonâs defense which some could argue is as good as Clemsonâs defense.
Clemson has more talent here, but there is certainly inexperience on defense. Just 50% of their production return from last year and they certainly have not been tested like this. When you consider that Auburnâs offense is just beyond awful, Troy is Troy, and SC State canât even return kicks. Clemson lost key guys up front on the defensive line including Shaq Lawson, but 3 total guys who played in 15 games. They lose 2 LBâs, and 3 guys in the secondary. Dabo Swineyâs teams have done well against the triple option, because he says they prepare for it all off season, but there is still quite a bit of inexperience against the flexbone.
Paul Johnson is pretty honest about his offense and his comments intrigue me. He seems to be very confident and why shouldnât he be. They were decimated by injuries a year ago. This year they have a veteran QB in Justin Thomas, and offensive line that is physical and can pass protect better than lines in recent years and more versatility at both the A and B back positions. I also like their capability and desire to take shots deep. I think the Clemson secondary can be caught sleeping and I think a few plays deep can really change the momentum of this game.
The good thing if you are a Georgia Tech backer is that they have proven they can score without their running game against Clemson who has done a great job of stopping it. Iâm convinced this offense can be better than 2014 for Georgia Tech. I am very confident this will be a close game as Georgia Tech will hold onto the ball as much as possible to limit possessions and when you talk about holding the ball and youâre not giving Clemson their 14 possessions you are taking about putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the offense. I donât think Clemson is ready for that type of pressure based on what I have seen this year. Georgia Techâs Paul Johnson talks a lot about possessions, stating "If we're playing well offensively and not turning the ball over and not making penalties, there is a huge difference," Johnson said Monday in Atlanta. "If you can get people into an eight-possession game, or a nine-possession game, and you're really efficient on offense, it puts a lot of pressure on them on offense. Because if their concern is getting two touchdowns down, that's like being four touchdowns down against somebody that's playing 15 possessions."
I just feel at the end of the day Georgia Tech at home, Clemson short week to prepare with Louisville on deck not to say they wonât take Georgia Tech seriously. Itâs hard to beat Georgia Tech by double digits at home unless they make a ton of mistakes. Georgia Tech just 2.7 penalties per game and they have an experienced QB who is very aware of how important ball control is.
